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Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots, Maintenance Personnel, Air Traffic Controllers
This manual constitutes an independent study regarding civil aviation personnel and contributes to the aviation data and traffic forecasts for which the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is recognized.
During the last decade, commercial air transport has shown a strong traffic growth pattern, leading to many new commercial air transport operators and the highest number of aircraft orders ever registered. Over the next twenty years, the demand for qualified aviation personnel, such as pilots, aircraft maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers will need to be correlated to aircraft delivery plans.
The approach taken in this study compares the number of new personnel to be trained each year with the annual training capacities of the existing training infrastructure, with a view to expose possible shortages or surpluses globally and by region. Failure to quantify such shortages or surpluses could not only constrain air traffic growth, but could also adversely affect the safety and efficiency of air transport operations.
Before the air transport industry crisis in 2008 and 2009, the threat of a widening gap between available and required personnel was seen as a potential traffic growth constraint in certain regions. The challenge for the industry remains to ensure sufficient training capacities without compromising quality and safety standards.
In the short term, the pressure might be temporarily eased since the airline industry is still recovering from the decline in traffic growth due to the global financial crisis and is therefore carefully managing the redeployment of its capacity. However, difficulties may soon arise when the additional demand for personnel, fuelled by traffic increases and fleet expansion, coincides with predicted retirement waves.
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